IMF: The Global Economy Is “Standing on One Leg — AI”; Inflation Will Jump to 4.7%, and Resilience Is “Under Strain”
The IMF raised 2026 growth to 3.1 percent but warns of a split picture: AI-exposed economies are holding up, while energy importers are the most vulnerable.
In its October projections the IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent (3.5 percent in 2025), and global inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.7 percent. Refined petroleum product prices remain 70–95 percent above pre-war levels because of the US–Iran war, which according to the text began in February. Advanced economies are expected to grow 2.1 percent, while the Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to contract 0.3 percent.
The IMF speaks of a “bifurcated” picture: economies exposed to artificial intelligence, such as Taiwan and South Korea, are growing considerably more, while energy importers and poor countries outside the AI boom are the most vulnerable. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said “the global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside.” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of a “real risk of complacency” and that the world is “standing on one leg: the AI leg.”
In a speech ahead of the meetings Georgieva said public debt is at its highest since World War II and could exceed 100 percent of GDP before 2030, and that the AI risk is that markets could be disappointed by AI earnings. The fund recommends temporary and targeted support measures and says rate hikes are appropriate to tame inflation.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 14, 2026
