IMF Versus the Government Budget: 3.8% Growth and 2.5% Inflation — How Well Do the Numbers Hold Up
The 2026 budget was adopted with projections of 3.8% growth and 2.5% inflation, but repeated IMF revisions — raising inflation and lowering growth — point to a widening gap between the government's scenario and reality.
The government adopted the 2026 budget based on projections of 3.8% economic growth and 2.5% inflation. However, the International Monetary Fund repeatedly revised its estimates upward for inflation and downward for growth during the year — in one estimate tied to the Middle East military conflict, the IMF forecast 4.5% inflation for Macedonia, and in another estimate 3.4%, consistently well above the government's 2.5% scenario.
The National Bank, for its part, reported that 2025 inflation ended with an average of 4.1%, with expectations of "a further decline" in 2026 — a figure that, if confirmed, would be closer to the government's scenario than earlier IMF estimates, but still higher than the budget's projected 2.5%.
The gap between institutions isn't just numerical — the IMF is "grounding" the authorities' optimistic growth narrative, warning of a more expensive life and slower growth, while the government sticks with the initial projections used to plan budget spending. As the year draws to a close, the gap between projected and actual figures will become measurable, not merely a matter of institutional dispute.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 4, 2026
