IEA Warns: Diesel Stays Short Into 2027 and Prices in Europe Could Jump Again — What It Means for Transport and Your Wallet
In its monthly report of October 14, the International Energy Agency says diesel stocks will not be rebuilt before the second half of 2027, and wholesale prices in Europe could rise again.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its monthly report of October 14, warned that wholesale diesel prices in Europe could rise again in the coming weeks and that the market could stay tight into 2027. Recovering Gulf supply has not closed the gap: global output in September rose by 2.5 million barrels a day to 102.3 million, but consumption is about 103.5 million. The IEA said renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery “fragile.”
Diesel benchmarks are nearly double the price of crude and their pre-crisis levels, although below September’s record of more than $200 a barrel, according to the IEA. The causes are the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi oil sites, fuel exports from the Middle East at less than half their pre-war level and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Stocks used during the crisis are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Brent briefly topped $107 on October 14.
For Macedonia, Mickoski says traders expect diesel to be available until the end of the year and that the state will keep its low-price policy, while Energy Minister Bozhinovska said fuel use at border crossings is about 30% higher but supply is holding. The IEA warns that markets may see “more turmoil” before any eventual surplus emerges in 2027, unless regional conflicts are resolved.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 16, 2026
