The Bank of England Decides on November 5 on a 3.75 Percent Rate While Markets Expect a Rise to 4 Percent
UK inflation is 3.1 percent, and three of nine board members already voted for a rise in September. This matters beyond Britain too, because energy is pushing interest rates up.
The Bank of England will announce its decision on the base interest rate on Thursday, November 5, at 12:00 local time, together with the new Monetary Policy Report. The rate is 3.75 percent, unchanged since the cut on December 18, 2025. Markets and several large banks expect a rise, which according to AOL would be the first since 2023.
How divided is the board. At the last meeting, on September 17, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold the rate. The three members (Greene, Mann and Pill) voted for a rise to 4 percent. In 2026 the decisions to hold had splits of 5–4 in February, 8–1 in April, 7–2 in June and 6–3 in July and September.
What pushes rates up. Inflation in August is 3.1 percent, above the 2 percent target (the latest figure we checked, and a newer one for September may exist). According to the bank’s September projection, it would be about 3¾ percent in the last quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4 percent in early 2027. About 0.7 percentage points of the overshoot is attributed to energy, mostly fuel. Inflation expectations in the bank’s Decision Maker Panel survey of October 30 rose to 3.3 percent for one year, from 3.1.
What markets expect. Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, JPMorgan and Bank of America, according to carried forecasts, expect a rise of 25 basis points in November. The Polymarket platform, according to another report, puts a rise to 4 percent at about 94 percent probability. That is a market estimate, not a decision, and the bank may decide otherwise.
The budget. The British autumn budget was on October 28, eight days before the decision. Higher borrowing could raise government bond yields, which is one of the things the board will watch. The bank also watches second-round effects, i.e. whether costlier energy passes into wages and contracts.
Contrast with the eurozone. The European Central Bank on October 29 kept its deposit rate at 2.50 percent. The US Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.75–4.00 percent in September. Europe waits, the US has already raised and Britain is preparing to, and the reason for all of them is the same shock: costlier energy because of the conflict around Iran.
What it means for us. The denar is pegged to the euro, so the Bank of England’s decision does not directly change interest rates here. It matters indirectly because it shows how long the energy shock keeps pressure on prices in Europe, which the National Bank also follows. It directly affects only those with loans or income in pounds, among them part of the diaspora in the United Kingdom.
What to follow. The vote on November 5 (how many members ask for a rise), the new inflation projections for 2027 and the governor’s message. The next meeting is on December 17.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · November 2, 2026
