US elections on November 3: 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with Republicans leading 218–214 and 53–47
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber. High fuel prices and the war with Iran are at the centre of the campaign.
On November 3 the US midterm elections are held, and more than 100 million people are expected to vote. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and governors and other state offices are on the ballot. This is based on an overview by The National of October 30, which gives no forecasts. Below we set out the figures and what is at stake.
The current balance. Republicans hold the House 218–214, with two vacancies and one independent who votes with the conservatives. In the Senate Republicans have 53 seats and Democrats 47. House members serve two-year terms and senators six-year terms, two from each state.
What Democrats need. According to the same overview, to take control they need a net gain of four seats in the House and four in the Senate. These are small numbers relative to the totals: four of 435 in the House and four of 100 in the Senate.
The races to watch. In the Senate ten races are rated competitive, including Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia. Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed faces Mike Rogers, and Alaska, where Mary Peltola is running against incumbent Dan Sullivan, are singled out. In the House the overview mentions Mike Lawler’s seat in a New York district that Kamala Harris won in 2024, an open seat in a swing district in Nebraska and three seats in Pennsylvania and New Jersey that Democrats hope to flip. Most advertising is in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.
Issues and mood. According to the same overview, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is in the mid-30s. An AP-NORC poll shows that about eight in ten registered voters want the next Congress to prioritise lowering the cost of living, and many also want an end to the war with Iran. Democrats link Republican support for the war to higher fuel prices.
The link to oil. In today’s story on oil we note that Brent is around $118 and that Trump earlier said the US would not strike Iran before the elections. The result and the market may therefore be connected, but the reports do not tell us how.
What is not published. The overview we use contains no forecasts of the outcome, and no poll-closing times or when results are expected. We therefore do not claim it. Close races in US elections sometimes take longer to count, but for these elections we have no specific data.
What it means outside the US. The outcome will show whether the president can carry out his agenda in the last two years of his term, as The National writes. The consequences for Europe and the region are not elaborated in the overview we use, so we do not assess them.
What to follow. The Senate results in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, whether Democrats achieve a net gain of four seats in the House and whether after the elections there is a change in the US stance toward Iran.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · November 1, 2026
