Growth on Paper, a Hole in the Till: What the 3.2% Forecast Means If the Rebalance Cuts Excise and VAT
The World Bank raised its growth forecast for Macedonia to 3.2% this year, but at the same time the government is preparing a second budget rebalance over a hole in excise and VAT revenue — two figures that don't easily fit into one picture.
The World Bank raised Macedonia's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.2%, with a 3% projection for the following two years — a figure domestic authorities immediately used as proof of economic stability. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is preparing a second budget rebalance this year, after excise and VAT revenues fell short of planned levels.
The budget hole, according to available data, amounts to roughly 5 billion denars from excise duties alone, and together with the VAT shortfall the total gap runs to 6-7 billion denars. The paradox is obvious — if the economy is really growing at 3.2%, why are consumption-tax revenues lagging behind plan? Part of the explanation lies in the excise and VAT cuts the government introduced earlier this year as an anti-inflation measure, which are now coming back as a budget cost.
For citizens, the gap between "growth on paper" and "a hole in the till" isn't abstract — a second rebalance in the same year means either new spending cuts, new borrowing, or both. The World Bank's growth forecast remains an accurate macroeconomic picture, but on its own it doesn't solve the concrete fiscal headache facing the Finance Ministry before year's end.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 7, 2026
