Brazil: runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 1 to 2 points in polls
Bolsonaro won the first round with about 2.2 million more votes, but all three polls are within the margin of error.
Brazilians vote on October 25, 2026 in the runoff of the presidential election, in which incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Flávio Bolsonaro. The first round was on October 4 and Bolsonaro received the most votes: 56,104,503 against 53,879,538 for Lula, about 2.2 million more.
Polls before the runoff are almost level. According to Al Jazeera, the CNT/MDA poll released on October 16 gives Bolsonaro 46.8 percent and Lula 45.9, Quaest, released the day before, 46 against 44, and Datafolha 47 against 45. Datafolha measured Bolsonaro at 49 percent a week earlier. All three polls are within a two-point margin of error, so many experts regard the race as a toss-up.
What is at stake? According to the same report, Brazilians are concerned about crime and the cost of living. Bolsonaro promises a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and changes to the taxes that fund government programs. Lula points as a major win to the amendment Congress recently approved, under which workers get two paid days off a week instead of one. Brazil's tense relationship with the United States is a backdrop to the election.
Why does it matter outside Brazil? Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and a major exporter of food, ore and oil, so its politics affect world markets and EU and US agreements with the region. Concrete effects on North Macedonia, however, are not clear and should not be assumed: we are far from that market and our imports and exports with Brazil are small.
What is uncertain in the polls? The polls differ from each other by one to two points, and the margin of error is two points. That means either candidate can win without the polls being confirmed. The effect of turnout and of undecided voters, which most often decides in such races, is also unknown.
What is not known? It is not known who will win, or by what margin. It is also not known which first-round candidates will back whom, or what the reactions will be after the election if the result is narrow. I did not find polls published after October 16.
What does it mean? Brazil's runoff is a test of a polarized society where a margin of thousands of votes can decide. Until results are published, the most common question is not who is ahead, but how narrow the win is.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 23, 2026
