Brent above $110: Houthis strike Saudi Arabia while US diesel stocks unexpectedly rise

The price of Brent crude on the morning of October 22 rose by 1.29 dollars, or 1.2 percent, to 110.11 dollars a barrel, after settling nearly unchanged on Wednesday. US WTI rose 97 cents to 98.12 dollars, after falling 67 cents on Wednesday. The data are from Reuters at about 00:34 GMT, so they reflect early trading.

The main reason is attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday they struck several targets: at the civilian airport in Dammam at least one person was killed and eight were wounded, and in a drone attack on an oil field two people were killed. The US ordered some diplomats and family members to leave its missions in the kingdom, and the State Department plans to withdraw family members from other regional missions as well.

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Tension around Iran is also rising. Explosions of unknown origin were reported in Sirik, in southern Iran. Iran's foreign minister said the country is fully prepared to defend itself, and President Pezeshkian said the US cannot expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran.

For shipping, Kpler data show at least 18 attacks on vessels in the past two weeks. LSEG analysts warned that Iran is targeting tankers beyond Hormuz, as far as the Gulf of Oman, which could threaten crude loadings from the Gulf.

US data from the EIA gave the opposite signal on diesel. Crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels, to 412.5 million, against an expected draw of 820,000. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 1.68 million barrels, to 104.3 million, against an expected draw of 1.16 million. That is an unexpected increase in precisely the fuel that worries markets most. The US Department of Energy is offering to loan nearly a third of the one-million-barrel emergency heating oil reserve to contain diesel price spikes.

Diplomacy is the second half of the picture. Putin hosted Witkoff in St Petersburg, and the Kremlin said he agreed to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine as soon as next month; Zelenskyy said he supports them. Russian state media reported that the first shipment of Russian diesel has been dispatched, following Trump's October 10 deal.

What does it mean for North Macedonia? In the latest RKE calculation diesel is 99 denars, and world reference prices for diesel rose by an average of 2.9 percent while petrol became cheaper. The next calculation will depend on whether these numbers hold. The oil crisis state and the reduced VAT on diesel are the measures that soften that link, but do not break it.

What is not known? It is not known whether the attacks on Saudi Arabia will affect physical exports, how long they last and whether they will spread. It is also unclear whether Russian diesel deliveries will arrive at the announced volume, or whether the extra diesel stocks in the US are a sign of easing. There is no estimate for the next Macedonian calculation.

MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 22, 2026