Israel after the vote: Likud at 24 to 25 seats in exit polls, neither bloc reaches 61

Israelis voted on October 27, and the exit polls on Channels 12 and 13, as reported by Ynet, show no majority for either Netanyahu’s bloc or the opposition. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61. Different outlets read the polls differently: CNN writes that there is no clear winner, while Ynet notes in revised polls a rise for Netanyahu’s bloc. We therefore read these figures as preliminary.

The polls by party (Channel 12 / Channel 13). Likud 24 / 25. Yashar! of Gadi Eisenkot 22 / 23. Beyahad of Naftali Bennett 12 / 14. Joint List 11 / 10. The Democrats of Yair Golan 9 / 9. Yisrael Beiteinu of Avigdor Lieberman 9 / 7. Ra’am 7 / 7. United Torah Judaism 7 / 7. Shas 6 / 6. Religious Zionism–Zehut 6 / 6. The list does not cover all parties.

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The blocs. The opposition bloc, according to the polls, has 52 seats on Channel 12 and 53 on Channel 13, so it is 9 or 8 seats short of a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc has 50 seats on both channels and is 11 short. Arab parties together get 18 and 17 seats respectively.

Turnout. By 8 p.m., 74.3 percent of voters had voted, or 5,449,277 of 7,331,981, the highest level for that hour since 1988. At the November 2022 election turnout at the same hour was 66.3 percent.

How long the count will take. More than 650,000 double-envelope ballots are counted separately, and the Central Elections Committee said the process could run until Friday morning, that is October 30. According to Wikipedia, official results are to be confirmed on November 4. The threshold for entering the Knesset is 3.25 percent, and according to the polls three lists, Amcha Yisrael, the Reservists–Economic Party and Haredi Public, remain below it.

What is not known. The final distribution of seats is not known, nor whether any bloc will find a way to reach 61. It is also not known who will receive the mandate to form a government. We do not assess here who will be prime minister, since the polls do not decide that.

How a government is formed. In Israel the president, after consulting the parties, gives the mandate to the member of the Knesset with the best chance of assembling a majority, who has 28 days, with a possible extension of 14 more. That is why blocs of 50 and 52 to 53 seats, if confirmed, will have to court the small lists and parties near the threshold.

Comparison with the previous Knesset. According to Wikipedia, Likud had 32 seats before the vote. The polls give it 24 to 25, that is 7 to 8 seats fewer. This is a comparison of a poll with the previous Knesset, not a final result, so it does not mean it will happen exactly that way. Exit polls on Channels 12 and 13 are not always accurate, so it is worth waiting for the final count. The story is also followed by CNN and NBC, whose headlines speak of an election night without a clear winner.

What it means. The blocs are close, so small lists and the counting of envelopes can change the picture. The most reliable figure will therefore be the one after the count is complete, not the one from election night.

MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 28, 2026