ECB at 2.50 percent, inflation at 2.7 percent here: the next decision is on October 29
Macedonian annual inflation rose to 2.7 percent in September, while the ECB raised rates and does not rule out another step.
On September 10 the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 2.25 to 2.50 percent, effective September 16. It is the second increase this year. The ECB justified the move by pressure from energy-driven inflation: attacks on Middle East energy and shipping infrastructure pushed oil above 100 dollars a barrel, and eurozone inflation rose above 3 percent, well above the 2 percent target.
According to ECB projections, average eurozone inflation will be 3.0 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2027 (raised from 2.3) and 2.1 percent in 2028. President Christine Lagarde said future decisions depend on data at each meeting and that no rate path has been set.
The next meeting is on October 29. According to Reuters, two sources said policymakers expect further tightening and “could move again as soon as October”, depending on data and developments around Iran. That is a report from sources, not a decision, so it cannot be treated as established fact.
Where do we stand? Macedonian annual inflation in September was 2.7 percent, against 2.6 percent in August, the highest level in three months, according to Trading Economics. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 1.7 percent year on year, from 1.0 percent the month before. Restaurants and hotels rose 5.8 percent (from 4.8), and clothing and footwear 2.7 percent (from 2.1). Transport eased slightly, to 3.3 percent from 3.4.
How do ECB rates reach Macedonian loans? Through several channels. The denar is pegged to the euro, so the central bank (NBRM) in principle follows eurozone monetary policy to hold the exchange rate, and banks also fund themselves in euros. How exactly and when this passes into domestic loan rates depends on the type of rate: variable-rate loans react faster, while fixed-rate ones only at renewal. I did not check an NBRM decision after the ECB's September move, so I do not claim there has been a change in the domestic rate.
The practical question for citizens is: which loans are sensitive? Those with a variable rate and those being refinanced. Those with a fixed rate stay unchanged until the end of the fixed period. If the ECB raises its rate again on October 29, the effect would be gradual, not immediate.
What is not known? It is not known whether the ECB will raise the rate on October 29. Nor is it known whether the NBRM will change its domestic instrument and how quickly banks will pass the costlier funding on to clients. It is also unclear how Macedonian inflation will move in the coming months, since that depends on the oil price and on government measures.
What does it mean? The risk of costlier loans is not immediate, but it is real for variable rates. Anyone with such a loan, or planning to borrow, would do well to watch October 29 and check the rate agreed in their contract.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 21, 2026
