Bulgaria heads to a runoff on November 1: Yotova 35–36.5 percent, Gyurov about 32 percent in exit polls

Bulgaria's presidential election on October 25 will go to a runoff. According to exit polls relayed by Euronews, incumbent President Iliana Yotova received 35 to 36.5 percent, and Andrey Gyurov, a former caretaker prime minister, about 32.2 to 32.5 percent. Neither reached 50 percent, so the runoff is on November 1. First preliminary results are expected on Monday.

Yotova fell short of expectations. Polls before the election gave her 41 to 47 percent and Gyurov 28 to 31 percent, so the gap between the two came out smaller than assumed. Other reports give somewhat wider estimates for Gyurov (31 to 33.5 percent). These are exit polls, not official results.

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Turnout is another figure. According to projections relayed by Ground News, it is below 40 percent of 6.6 million registered voters, far from the 50 percent required for a first-round win. Yonhap described it as the lowest turnout in history. That is also why nobody could win in the first round.

What was the campaign about? Russia's war in Ukraine, drone attacks on commercial ships off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, higher energy prices and inflation. Yotova, backed by the party of Prime Minister Rumen Radev, favors dialogue with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine. Gyurov, backed by pro-Western opposition parties, firmly supports Ukraine.

What happened in North Macedonia? Seven polling stations were opened for these elections: in Skopje (embassy), Bitola, Ohrid, Strumica, Kavadarci, Prilep and Kočani. There were 265 applications to vote, more than the 210 at the April parliamentary elections. According to BTA, by 11:00 141 Bulgarian citizens had voted, and the voting passed calmly and without incidents. I did not find the final number in the reports checked.

What is the link with North Macedonia? Reports on the election do not mention North Macedonia. The presidency in Bulgaria is largely ceremonial, according to OBCT, and we cite no direct effect on the Macedonian question. The political climate in Sofia still affects how much room there is for talks with Skopje.

What is not known? The official result is not known, nor the final turnout. It is not known who will back the two candidates in the runoff. Nor is it known whether the Macedonian question will enter the runoff campaign. Also, November 1 is the day of the Brvenica runoff too, but the two elections have no connection.

What does it mean? The runoff will show whether Yotova, backed by the ruling party, keeps her lead or Gyurov unites opponents of Radev. For North Macedonia, what matters most will be what the winner says about neighbors.

MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 26, 2026