Bulgaria elects a president on October 25: Yotova leads with about 45 percent, Gyurov second with about 25 percent
A first-round win requires a majority and at least 50 percent turnout, so a runoff is the likely outcome.
Bulgarians elect the country's president on October 25, 2026. According to Wikipedia, there are 27 candidate pairs on the ballot, and the two main ones are incumbent President Iliana Yotova, an independent candidate, and Andrey Gyurov, also independent, backed by the reformist alliance PP–DB.
What do the polls say? According to the report of OBCT (Osservatorio Balcani Caucaso Transeuropa) of October 20, Yotova has about 45 percent in recent weeks, a lead but a few points short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Gyurov is at about 25 percent and is expected to finish second, while Kostadin Kostadinov of Revival struggles to reach 10 percent. About 38 percent of voters say they will definitely vote.
The rules are strict: in the first round a candidate wins with a majority, but only if turnout is at least 50 percent, otherwise the top two go to a runoff. According to the same data, no candidate has ever won outright in the first round. I did not confirm the date of a possible second round in the reports checked.
What are the main issues? The war in Ukraine and the widening conflict in the Black Sea, including attacks on four ships in Bulgarian waters, the West-Russia divide, and pressure from energy prices and inflation. Radev and Yotova favor avoiding sides and a negotiated peace, and critics call this “strategic indecision” and accuse them of courting the Kremlin. Gyurov criticizes Yotova's response to the drone attacks. These are the views of parties and critics, not confirmed facts.
Context: Rumen Radev, the former president, is now prime minister and leads the party Progressive Bulgaria, which won the April parliamentary election. GERB of Boyko Borisov is not fielding a candidate. The source calls the presidential vote a barometer of support for the new government six months after its victory.
What does it mean for North Macedonia? The presidency in Bulgaria is largely ceremonial, although it has often played an important role in resolving political crises. The source we used does not mention North Macedonia, so a direct link with the Macedonian-Bulgarian dispute cannot be assumed. Still, the outcome affects the political climate in Sofia, where decisions on North Macedonia's European path are made.
What is not known? The election result is not known, nor is turnout. It is also unknown who will reach a runoff, if one is needed, or whether any campaign topic will touch the Macedonian question. The latest poll on the candidates that I found is a few days old, so it cannot be said whether anything has changed.
What does it mean? The vote shows how stable support for Radev's government is and whether Bulgaria will get a president from the same political circle. For North Macedonia it is worth watching the winner's statements on the neighborhood and EU enlargement.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 25, 2026
