Brent falls to $114.51 on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation, but analysts expect volatility
The fall comes after a 6 percent rise last week, and attacks on Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend.
Brent crude on Monday, October 26, fell to 114.51 dollars a barrel, a drop of 2.21 dollars or 1.89 percent, according to Business Recorder. US WTI fell to 101.04 dollars, or 2.16 percent. The fall comes after a 6 percent rise for Brent last week, when the price was near a six-month high.
What caused the fall? Hopes of calming hostilities between the US and Iran. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday to help de-escalate, in coordination with Washington. According to one analyst, that does not mean a real improvement in supply.
The attacks continued. The Houthis said they struck an airport and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, and Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it intercepted additional missiles and drones. Accordingly, security risks remain.
What do analysts say? Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights assessed that the respite “may prove temporary”, that volatility is expected to stay high and that risks are skewed upward, noting that strikes on Iran could resume after the US midterm elections on November 3. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said the pullback reflects “position adjustments and risk management”, not a real improvement in supply, and that risks around Hormuz remain.
IEA head Fatih Birol said he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to pre-war levels. That is a long-term message: even if the price falls from its peak, a return to the previous level is not expected.
What does it mean for fuel here? Fuel prices are set by the RKE according to world quotations with some lag. A fall from 116.72 to 114.51 dollars is small and does not guarantee a lower price at the pump. The next calculation will depend on the average of quotations in the period taken into account, and I did not find a date.
What is not known? It is not known whether de-escalation will succeed, or whether the price will return above 116 dollars. It is not known how Saudi Arabia will respond to new attacks. It is also unclear whether the government will extend the fuel measures.
What does it mean? The small fall is a signal that the market hopes for calm, but analysts do not see a lasting turnaround. For drivers, the main thing is to wait for the next RKE decision.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 26, 2026
