The ECB Raised Rates and Oil Won’t Budge: What Comes Next for Your Loan
The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points in September, the deposit rate is 2.50 percent, and the next decision is on October 29 — while oil stays around $100.
On September 10 the European Central Bank unanimously raised its three key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate is 2.50 percent, the main refinancing rate 2.65 and the marginal lending rate 2.90 percent, effective September 16. The ECB cited the Middle East conflict, which is adding to inflation pressure; it expects inflation to stay “well above target for an extended period.” Staff projections are 3.0 percent for 2026, 2.5 for 2027 and 2.1 for 2028, and Lagarde stressed that the bank is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Oil is not helping: Brent is around $100, and preliminary data put euro-area inflation in September at 3.8 percent, with energy inflation of about 19 percent. The ECB’s next decision is on October 29. According to market estimates as of October 7, the probability of another hike in October is about 20 percent and considerably higher for December. Those are estimates, not decisions.
For a Macedonian borrower the answer depends on the contract. For loans with a variable rate tied to European benchmark rates, pricier money can raise installments, while a fixed rate protects until the fixed period ends. The most practical advice is to check the interest clause in your contract — and not to count on the assumption that “oil will fall by itself.”
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 9, 2026
